Where The Economy Goes From Here

As a conservative, I have grave concerns about President Obama's re-election and its likely effects on the US economy. I have been quite afraid that we are likely to head further down the road towards a state-directed economy, much like European social democracies.

In this blog, University of Chicago economist, John Cochrane, makes a few predictions. They really aren't pretty. The most obvious; that four more years of Obama means four trillion more dollars added to our national debt.

The part of his post that troubles me the most, however, is his description of the incredible breadth of regulations which are already on tap and slated to be implemented as a result of current legislation and executive fiat. Here are his examples just dealing with the EPA:

• Greenhouse gases. Detailed industry controls focusing on greenhouse gas emissions. They're even going to regulate cow farts. Sorry, Farm Methane Emissions. It's funny unless you're a dairy farmer. Hundreds of billions
• Between greenhouse gases, much tighter mercury limits, and designating coal ash a "hazardous substance" like nuclear waste (I'm exaggerating, but that's the idea), the end of coal.
• Tight fracking regulations.
• Much tigher ozone standards. Many cities are now way over the limit.
• Cut sulfur in gas from 30 ppm to 10 ppm. EPA: $90 billion a year
• Temperature standards to protect fish in power plant cooling ponds
• Tighter standards for farm dust. Farms have to submit mediation plans.
• Water quality control for every body of water in the country.
• Strict regulation of industrial boilers ($10-20 billion)
• Formaldehyde emissions from plywood. I didn't know Home Depot was a dangerous place to hang out.  

There are a lot more examples, coming as a result of the ACA (Obamacare), the Dodd-Frank law, and other Federal laws and executive orders.

Read the whole post, but make sure you have the stomach for it. If this guy is half right, our economic future is not a happy one.

Where Conservatives Go From Here

I spent my day yesterday feeling down because I didn't get the "presents" I wanted for "Electionmas" (as Ann Althouse put it). I'm done feeling gloomy, though and now its time to move on, disappointed but glad I live in a Democracy. As Mo Udall once said after losing an election, "The people have spoken.....the bastards".

The "soul searching" is now beginning for Conservatives and Republicans. There will be many calls for being more inclusive or for finding candidates who will argue conservative principles more forcefully. There have already been call for purging the GOP of Tea Party members or apostates like Chris Christie.

The GOP must take this look, but as it does, it must reflect on the fact that Obama's election and re-election tells us that the United States is not the same country it was 20-30 years ago. It is not simply politics, however. The culture has changed and unless conservatives find a way to get their ideas into the current cultural mainstream, they are doomed to political failure.

This piece by Andrew Klaven outlines the problem and offers a few suggestions for a plan of attack. He suggests that political success can only be built upon a foundation of ideas which must be spread through the culture. Here are a couple of excepts from his article:

"The smartest political writers in the country, all of whom are conservative, will now be addressing those questions. I’m an artist; I play the long game.
To win that game, to create an electorate more deeply committed to true liberty and resistant to the sort of cultural scare tactics the president’s campaign team used so effectively, there are three areas to which conservatives need to commit intellectual and financial resources—three areas that our intelligentsia and funders, in their impractical practicality, too often ignore."

Klavan goes on to outline those three areas, the mainstream news media, the entertainment industry and religion among intellectuals (particularly in academia). His conclusion:

"In the aftermath of a crushing electoral defeat, all this [Klavan's discussion of ways to change the current culture] may seem a distant business, an airy conversation for another day. It isn’t. The demography of the country is changing, but demography is not destiny. Ideas are. We must retake the culture and begin speaking truth to a new America."

I think Klavan is really on the right track. I encourage you to read it. I hope that conservatives and GOP leaders realize that the path to political victory lies, in part, outside of electoral politics.

Obama Re-Elected

Barak Obama has been re-elected President.

I admit to my great surprise and some sadness. I fear that the great country I grew up in, is irrevocably changed. It appears that the country of the rugged individualist, has given way to  a nation where JFK's famous adage "Ask not..." has been stood on its head.

Moreover, the President ran a divisive campaign, which may take some time to heal.

Perhaps the President will take his close shave and try to be the agent of hope and change that he claimed he was four years ago. We'll see. I do not think the country can take four more years of the same Obama we had over the last four.

Finally!

Election Day is here.

The voting has begun. The early returns show a 5-5 tie out of Dixville Notch.

Romney is out-performing McCain already. Obama beat McCain by more than 2-1 in the Notch in 2008. The start of a trend.....?

What's A Government To Do?

That is the question Mark Steyn asks in this NRO post. He points out that President Obama and Mayor Bloomberg have talked a good game on global warming issues and frequently warned about the effects of "rising oceans". But, despite the talk (and trillions in spending) there is precious little to show for it.

Steyn points out that a sea wall that would have protected NY harbor would have cost $10 billion, far less than the cost of the damage done by Sandy. Its also less than 2% of the famed Obama stimulus which neither stimulated the economy nor left behind any material physical manifestation of its expenditure.

Steyn notes that our political "leaders" no longer even attempt, let alone complete, produce serious, major accomplishments. After discussing building the protective seawall that could have been with only a fraction of the stimulus money, Steyn sums up our current situation:

"And yet it never happened – and, if we’re honest with ourselves, in today’s sclerotic America, you can’t even imagine it happening, can you? Let us go to Nanny Bloomberg himself:

But with so many prescient warnings, city authorities are struggling to explain why so little was done. Mayor Bloomberg has said it was difficult to translate such warnings into concrete action.

They can chisel that on the epitaph of the republic."

Yet, as Steyn notes, he protected New Yorkers from too much soda:

"What does Nanny B ever translate into “concrete action”? Why, here he is posing with a desktop of carbonated beverages. This is what passes for political leadership in America. Can you imagine this ridiculous man or the spendaholic president he’s endorsed ever actually building a flood barrier?"

Read the whole post. It includes a link to a longer Steyn article about Big Government failures in big crises.

Random Thoughts

I'm in the office taking a break from getting some work done. It's amazing how much more productive I can be when no one is around and the phone is not ringing. I think I accomplished more in 3-4 hours working late or on the week-end than I do working 8 hours during a regular day.

The election is now only three days away. I'm ready for the decisions to be made. Obviously, I am a strong supporter of Mitt Romney for President and Maggie Brooks for Congress. The polls show close races, but I think Mitt has the upper hand. Maggie's situation is not as clear; the latest poll showed an increase in the lead for Louise Slaughter. Frankly, I felt that the Brooks campaign did not generate the level of enthusiasm that I expected. I am certainly no political pro, but I wish there had been a few more rallies and maybe a few less commercials. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for both of them.

The internals from the poll I mentioned confirmed something else that I have long believed. Namely, that eastside Republicans are wishy-washy members of the party. The poll shows that westside Republicans strongly support Maggie, while the party (un)faithful in Pittsford, Perinton and Penfield are far more tentative. It doesn't surprise me. Eastsiders are superior, you know. They play squash; westsiders grow it. They like to show that they aren't robotic partisans, but that they are sophisticated and capable of nuance. Well, their nuanced voting preferences may well keep Louise in Washington for two more years.

Is it possible for the media to be more in the tank than they are right now? The complete failure to cover the Benghazi story is a disgrace; their pro-Obama take on his hurricane Sandy efforts is laughable. I watched Bob Woodward, he of Watergate fame, try to explain the failure of the media to press Mr. Obama on the multi-faceted Benghazi scandal. At least he was a little embarrassed. Meanwhile, the president drops into New Jersey for a one hour photo-op with Chris Christie and then jets off to another Vegas fundraiser (hmm....hasn't he done that before. And back in NY and NJ, 8 hour gas lines, no power or water, FEMA befuddled, Staten Islanders dumpster-diving for food. The media crucified GW Bush for just "flying over" New Orleans during Katrina. But Obama, nah, he's their guy.

Finally, I'm going out on a limb and I'm going to call the election for Mitt Romney. My brother was in Vegas last week (he just missed the President...darn!). I told him to look for a book that was taking bets on the election. I wanted to put money on Romney/Ryan over 300 electoral votes. We'll see Tuesday night/Wednesday morning if I am Nostradamus or if I'm tearing up my tickets to the inaugural ball.