We are in the middle of the kick-off of the serious part of the 2008 race for the White House. Some random thoughts:
Democratic Convention:
A fair analysis would probably say that it was a good convention for Obama and the Democrats. Bill and Hillary Clinton did about all that could be expected of them to try to unite the Dems. Obama's big speech was run-of-the-mill Dem. tripe, but the setting was spectacular.
Veep Picks:
It seems to me that Obama's choice of Biden was clearly a "safe" and "defensive" choice, one intended to help him with a perceived weakness (experience, national security credibility). It was pretty predictable and it was rather old style political calculus from the supposedly "new politics" guy.
The Palin pick caught me short at first. Knowing nothing about her, I immediately assumed that she was chosen simply because she was a woman who might pull a few Hillary voters in. Clearly, that is the take and spin from the Democrats. After seeing her and hearing her speech and learning of her story, I am developing a whole new attitude. She is an incredibly likable, tough, conservative. She is going to appeal to a whole lot of people.
McCain's Campaign:
I have had my doubts about the McCain campaign up until a few weeks ago. I thought they did a great job of bringing the messianic Obama back to Earth. As I noted, I was initially concerned about the Palin pick, but upon surveying the reaction it is clear that McCain helped himself in a couple of ways.
First, as all the pundits agree, it took Obama's speech off the radar screen. You would have had a hard time finding anything out about the speech on the TV or Internet today. Second, and far more importantly, the pick has apparently energized many in the GOP. If you survey the commentary on National Review Online, you will find scores of comments like this:
"Toss me in as another Republican who's ecstatic about this pick and who's writing a check. I teared up as I watched the speech given by Gov. Palin. I haven't been this proud to be a Republican in far too long a time. I am proud we have a bona fide American hero running for president who has the political chops to miraculously energize his base and sucker punch the opposition at the same time."
and this:
"Today, I go from from an ambivalent McCain supporter driven more by fear of Obama to someone who can feel good about the prospects of a McCain administration. If there are a few million more like me, maybe the all-important undercard of Senate and House races won't turn out as badly as some experts are predicting."
here's another:
"[Palin] has thrilled the GOP's conservative base, which can now in good conscience give itself to the McCain candidacy with enthusiasm—not feigned enthusiasm, real enthusiasm—for the first time since the senator entered the race. This has solved McCain's worst strategic problem."
Only time will tell, but, if McCain ultimately pulls out a win, it may be that his campaign operatives will attain the stature of Karl Rove and Lee Atwater.
Finally, it wouldn't be a Repoman post if I didn't link to a Victor Davis Hanson comment on the race.
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3 comments:
If you ckeck the Huckabee sites, they were luke warm and some were even talking about writing in Huckabee's name until this move. McCain probably just secured the pro-life conservative base.
She may not draw a lot of Hillary people to McCain. But this may be enough to swing a few votes in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Michigan - the pro-lifers and Catholics who can't stomach Biden's hypocrisy. Those few votes might be enough to give those states to McCain.
Of course, if Palin implodes, then McCain may also have just killed any chance he had.
Final point: Doesn't Palin remind you just a bit of Mary Ann? Hmmm. I always liked her better than Ginger ...
That's what I'm seeing on most conservative sites.
I think Gov. Palin is the real deal to conservatives and they are now willing to believe McCain when he says he won't let them down, like, e.g., when he would nominate judges.
You are also right that the pick is a gamble. If she goes up in smoke, she takes McCain with her. No question. And, the Dems have the knives out for her in a big way, so far.
You're also right on with the Gilligan analogy. Mary Ann was the real person; Ginger was the 8 x 10 glossy, hollywood hype. Palin is obviously a real person, with a real story (and a great story, at that).
Palin...Palin???? Mayor of East Jesus, Alaska and 2 years as Governor. I guess she was strong w/ the polar bear vote. I am a moderate republican who is completely baffled and annoyed by this pick. While I like John, he is 72 and if something happens to him we would have a very raw rookie taking the proverbial 3:00 a.m. call. This pick eliminates one of our strong points - Obama's inexperience. She makes Barrack look like a pro. Why do we always pander to the conservative base? I know, stupid question. The same reason as the dems pander to the libs. If McCain stays Bush's course we will be in trouble but if the moderate McCain gets elected maybe he can get some work done instead of continuous gridlock with the now moronic congress.
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