A High Degree of Doubt

Last week the news was full of stories on the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). As you surely heard or read, the CIA announced that it had a "high degree of confidence" in its prediction that Iran had ceased its military nuclear program in 2003.

There were so many reactions to this news that its difficult to write about all of them. A couple things stand out for me. Perhaps first, is the obvious question of how the NIE in 2007 can conclude, with a high degree of confidence, that Iran halted its military nuclear program in 2003, in light of the conclusion contained in the 2005 version of the NIE, (which also came with a high degree of confidence), that Iran was developing military nukes.

It is also quite humorous to listen to critics of the Bush Administration use the NIE as a weapon against the President. These same critics blasted Bush for listening to "faulty" intelligence about Iraq; now they completely endorse a conclusion from the same intelligence community they loved to bash. Given the many errors in past NIE's, why should we accept this one as gospel?

Still, I don't understand the criticism. If its true that Iran stopped its military nuke program in 2003, there is only one explanation for their change. its the same reason Moammar Qaddafi had for giving up his nuke program; to wit: the US and its allies had just toppled Saddam Hussein and a big US army was sitting in the Middle East. The Bush Administration should be taking credit for Iran succumbing to its pressure and should be pointing out that with bad actors like the Iranians, "you get more with a kind word and a gun than you do with just a kind word".


Meanwhile, several commentators questioned the motives of the CIA officials responsible for these conclusions. If you have time, take a look at these PowerLine posts (J. Hinderaker, 12/3, S. Johnson, 12/4, P. Mirengoff, 12/4, S. Johnson, 12/5, S. Johnson, 12/9), and Norman Podhoretz' analysis and John Bolton's takedown of the NIE. I don't know if there is a full-blown rebellion against George Bush in the career State Department and CIA ranks, but the Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson affair, the many leaks of classified anti-terror programs, and now, the NIE about-face, certainly gives one reason to wonder.

For what its worth, here is Israel's view as reported by the AP:

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said "it's apparently true" that Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program in 2003. "But in our opinion, since then it has apparently continued that program," Barak told Army Radio. "There are differences in the assessments of different organizations in the world about this, and only time will tell who is right." Asked if the new U.S. assessment reduced chances that the U.S. will launch a military strike on Iran, Barak said that was "possible." However, he said, "We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend."

I guess Israel doesn't have quite so high a degree of confidence in the CIA.

My personal view is that we have a political system that is badly broken. Our political and governmental figures no longer care for anything but their short-term success and their personal aggrandizement (whether that be in terms of political power, or the acceptance of their socio-political views. The views of the people are all but ignored in this current game. We are treated as spectators rather than those being served.

Until we take back government from the current crop of callous, self-interested politicos, no work will be done on the multitude of serious problems facing us. Instead we will continue to have these games of "gotcha" where the stakes may be our very lives.