Giuliani Confunds Conventional Wisdom

An interesting story about Rudy Giuliani appeared in Time.com. Its a long article, but it discusses a number of points which I include in my reasons to believe Rudy is the real deal.

Pundits who doubt Rudy's chances, usually point to his alleged incompatibility with conservative "values voters" due his personal life and "liberal" positions on abortion, gay marriage and gun control. I have often expressed my view that voters are discounting politicians "positions" on various issues and, instead, are focusing on leadership. To me, that explains Rudy's "surprising" (to some) popularity in GOP presidential polls.

The following excerpt from the Time.com story reflects this idea that leadership, particularly regarding the war on terror, is trumping other considerations:

"The First Baptist North Spartanburg church in South Carolina is a theologically conservative success story, a suburban megachurch where 3,000 people have been known to show up for Sunday school. If social issues drive votes anywhere in America, it's around here. Yet Giuliani recently filled the fire station across the highway from First Baptist for a rally at which he was endorsed by the chairman of the county council and the executive director of the state firefighters association, who said, "Rudy Giuliani is the face of the response to 9/11."
One of the first people I met at the rally turned out to be a member of First Baptist church. His name was Paul Walters; he is a dentist, a Republican committeeman and a Giuliani fan. When I asked what his pastor might think of that, he just shook his head as if I was missing the point.
"Rudy can handle the social issues," Walters said confidently, because of his record in New York and because "people are going to look at the bigger issues, especially terrorism. Until we get a handle on that, the social issues will be down here," he said, gesturing at knee level.
A few minutes later, John McCarley, a weather-beaten cattleman with a deep drawl and a faded Yankees cap, echoed that analysis. "We're in an era where we need leadership," he said. "There will be social issues where we disagree, but ... we won't have a litmus test. He transcends that." ......".

Many political commentators have discounted Rudy's "early" lead because the race has, in their view, so long to go. I think those pundits are in for a surprise. The story goes on to point out that this year's election may defy conventional wisdom, particularly due to many big state primaries being moved up in time:

"After five years of maneuvering into position, everything is suddenly moving much faster than Giuliani expected: the race for endorsements, the fund-raising schedule, the competition for staff members. The rush of major states to jump their primaries to Feb. 5 could compress months of campaigning into a handful of days. A faster schedule, with big urban states playing a major role in the primaries, should favor a well-known candidate with proven crossover appeal. "It's good for me, no question about it, from a tactical point of view," says Giuliani. Furthermore, Giuliani strategists believe his experience as a tireless campaigner for other Republicans during the past five years is good preparation for a race that will play out in a transcontinental blitz of airport rallies. He knows how to balance exhaustion and exposure without making a campaign-killing mistake. And he has friends in many places. According to Anthony Carbonetti, the candidate's longtime political adviser, Giuliani has done more than 150 political speeches across 42 states since leaving office, including an eight-day marathon in 2004 in which he spoke 22 times in 14 states".

Bottom line is that Rudy's appeal transcends the labels his opponents have tried to tag him with. He's going to continue to be a force to be reckoned with.