Sunday, January 6, 2008

Pointless Punditry: Iowa Edition

As I recently wrote here, the airwaves, newspapers, and the Internet, are full of "analysis" of the presidential nomination process, despite the fact that only a handful of delegates have been selected to date.

Iowa has been on everyone's mind. There have been many stories about the candidates whose campaigns are boosted or doomed by the results there. Interestingly, you can find stories going both ways for almost every candidate. Oddly, no delegates were selected in Iowa. The first delegates selected came from Wyoming, where Mitt Romney took 6-8 of the 12 available.

Wyoming has a caucus, you ask? I didn't realize that either until I was trying to sift through the avalanche of Iowa analysis.

Why can't the pundits just wait for a couple of weeks and see what voters do in actual voting. After February 5th, the picture will be very clear. Or it won't! Take the Giuliani campaign effort. Many have opined that his "big state" strategy is risky and may fail. They took the Iowa defeat as proof thereof. You can spin anything any way you want, but his strategy will work or fail based on results in Florida, South Carolina and Michigan, and in the many states (including New York) which vote on the 5th. Why can't we wait and see? Its only another 3-4 weeks!

I think, though, that the reason there is so much punditry now is because these commentators fear that the whole thing might be over by the 5th. Then they will have to come up with something new to talk about. Its going to be harder to run the 24/7 news cycle with only two candidates in the race.

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